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The US labour market report for April will be today’s key focus for markets. Wednesday’s post-FOMC meeting press statement seemingly indicated that the Fed is still on course to raise its policy interest rates at its next meeting on 14th June. In its statement, the Fed acknowledged that “growth in economic activity has slowed” but significantly also said that this was “likely to be transitory”. Nevertheless, before raising rates for the second time this year it will probably want to see evidence that economic growth has picked up again in Q2. That attaches a lot of importance to upcoming economic data over the next six weeks starting with today’s report. The March US labour report was mixed. Payrolls grew by only 98k the weakest growth for ten months, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% a new cyclical low and at or close to many estimates of full employment. April is forecast to see a partial reversal of both these trends. Most indicators suggest that the labour market remains buoyant and so analysts expect payrolls to rebound and show a 200k rise. The unemployment rate, however, is expected to rise modestly to 4.6%. Earnings will be watched for signs of acceleration, but markets expect annual wage growth to be unchanged at 2.7%. A number of Fed policy makers are scheduled to speak today, including both Fed Chair Yellen and Vice-chairman Fischer. Of particular interest will be anything they have to say about what the Fed will be looking to justify a June policy move. Canada also releases labour market statistics today but otherwise there are no data releases of note elsewhere.

Good Morning, Even though the overall feeling is that of a market wrapping up for the year, some concerning news’ have cast a long shadow on the festive mood of the season. The two headlines which caught attention in the Asian session today: Russia’s ambassador to Turkey was shot dead on Monday by an assassin who told him: “We die in Aleppo, you die here.” The attack has been swiftly condemned by other countries. Elsewhere a truck rammed into crowds at a Berlin Christmas market on Monday evening, killing 12 people and injuring up to 48 people, police said. Berlin State Interior Minister Andreas Geisel said it was still unclear if it had been an attack or an accident. German President Joachim Gauck said in a statement that it was an "awful evening for Berlin and for our country". Reuters reports that France has increased security at Christmas markets after Berlin truck incident. As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.

It’s a busy day for economics events with important data releases in both the UK and the US, along with testimony to a House of Commons Committee by BOE Governor Carney and colleagues. UK CPI inflation rose to 1.0% in September, its highest level since November 2014, while ‘core’ inflation also picked up. Analysts expect another rise in ‘headline’ inflation In October to 1.1%. When the BOE cut its policy rate in August, Governor Carney suggested that a further reduction was likely in November. However, not only did the MPC fail to cut rates at its November meeting, it also moved to a more neutral guidance on future policy. At today’s HoC Committee hearing, Carney and his colleagues may be asked about the extent of upside risks for inflation and what would needed to cause the MPC to tighten monetary policy. In the US, October retail sales are expected to post a sizeable rise of 0.6% led by buoyant car sales. There are also a number of Fed speakers including Fed Vice Chairman Fischer. Of particular interest will be anything he has to say about the sharp rise in Treasury yields over the past week.

US Fed and ECB speakers dominate the calendar today. ECB Vice President Constancio will speak at the start of Euro Finance Week in Frankfurt. President Draghi will appear at the conference on Friday, but will appear at an event in Rome today. Elsewhere, today’s Fed speeches from Kaplan, Lacker and Williams will take place after the European close. They are part of a deluge of Fed officials on tap this week, with the centrepiece being Chair Yellen’s testimony to the Joint Economic Committee on Thursday. Also, PM Theresa May will speak at the Lord Mayor’s banquet this evening. Data wise, look for a fall in euro area industrial production of 0.9% in September, based on already-released national figures, including declines of 1.9% in Germany and 1.1% in France. Have a Great Week!

Another quiet day in terms economic reports will allow us to focus on tomorrows key US Retails Sales Data. Economists are forecasting a steady increase of 0.4% in sales with the holiday season now in full swing. Last month’s reading came out at 0.6%, 0.5% above the forecasted increase of .0.1%. Today’s US unemployment number will come under scrutiny after a good Non-Farm Payroll figure on Friday. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased by 3,000 to 269,000 for the week ended July 30, but the growth trend in the labor market remains healthy. Economists expected claims to reach 265,000. The level of claims remained below the 300,000 threshold for 74 consecutive weeks.. remaining below the 300,000 threshold for the 34th consecutive week. Since the job market is near full employment, there is limited scope for further declines in claims. The four-week moving average of claims rose 3,750 to 260,250. The number of claims is expected to reach 272,000 this week.

FOMC Minutes were unambiguously hawkish signaling that June is ‘seriously live’. Follow through on USD appreciation has been measured, but with the divergence trade likely to build on a further re-pricing of FOMC risks, tonight’s speech by Vice-Chairman Fischer and Dudley could drive another leg higher. Retail sales is the main UK data print today which after a weak March is forecasted for a small recovery. Broadly GBP isn’t trading off macro releases data continues to be overshadowed by polls showing the remain camp gaining by a widening margin (ISPOS 55% Remain, 37% Leave), betting odds have Remain close to the highs providing increasing support to the Pound.

Today’s BBA March housing transactions figures will provide a preview of Friday’s more comprehensive Bank of England data. They are likely to show a spike in the market. At least some of this, however, will be due to transactions being brought forward ahead of the rise in stamp duty on second homes implemented in April. As a result it will be difficult to work out the underlying strength of the UK housing market over the next few months. In the US, durable goods orders for March will provide an update on manufacturing. Headline growth will probably rebound sharply following February’s 3% decline. However, much of that will be due to volatile aircraft orders. Of more interest are ‘core’ orders (excluding transport), which declined in three out of four of the previous months. A rebound would be an indication that the recent malaise in manufacturing may be drawing to a close. Also of interest will be accompanying March capital goods shipments, which are used in the calculation of GDP and so will help to refine forecasts of the initial Q1 growth estimate due Thursday.

Following yesterday’s ECB meeting, today’s economic calendar is light with second-tier UK releases providing the key focus. January release of external trade and construction output data will provide additional colour on the outlook for UK GDP in Q1. Data for January industrial production released earlier this week, showed a smaller-than-expected rise of 0.3% m/m, chiming with UK survey data which so far point to a risk of slower economic growth in Q1. Today’s UK data releases are expected to support this view. UK construction output ended Q4 on a strong note, rising by 1.5% in December and survey evidence from the construction PMI remains consistent with ongoing gains over the coming months. However, following December’s firm gain, there is a risk that activity in the sector contracted in January. Meanwhile, the UK’s goods trade deficit is expected to have widened in January.

Manufacturing PMI data for October will provide an update on industrial activity in Europe. With world trade sluggish, the sector seems to be under pressure everywhere. The ‘flash’ indicators, however, suggested that manufacturing activity in the euro area was relatively resilient in October and the final figures are expected to confirm this picture. In the UK, the slowdown looks more abrupt and the October CBI survey showed a particularly sharp drop. Consequently, forecasts are for another fall in the headline index to 50.7. US manufacturing also looks to be under pressure due to the negative impact of a strong Dollar and weak external demand. While Friday’s stronger than expected Milwaukee ISM and Chicago PMI both point to some upside risk for today’s October ISM manufacturing release, this is still likely to show further weakness and may only just stay above the 50 expansion/contraction level.

With little on the UK and Eurozone calendars of note, with the exception of some ECB speakers, attention will be on the US today. The main focus will likely be the release of the Philadelphia Fed and Empire surveys for October, as well as New York Fed President Dudley’s speech at 15:30BST on the Fed’s policy reaction function. In light of recent comments from Brainard and Tarullo (both of whom are permanent voters) that appeared to be more dovish than Fed Chair Yellen, markets will be examining closely whether Dudley will shift his rhetoric away from his expectation of lift-off in 2015.

Following yesterday’s meeting between Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande on the implications of the Greek referendum result, an emergency meeting of Euro-area finance ministers is scheduled for noon today followed by a Euro-area leaders’ summit at 5pm.

Ahead of a busy week for key releases, today’s calendar is exceptionally light with only a handful of second tier surveys due. Domestically, the CBI Industrial Trends survey for April will provide an update on sentiment in the manufacturing sector going into Q2. Coinciding with the firming in the manufacturing PMI over the first quarter, the CBI survey has also pointed to some stabilisation in activity and today’s outturn will provide an opportunity to refine estimates ahead of the more closely followed manufacturing PMI on Friday.

The coming week is a relatively quiet one for economic data and events. Nevertheless, ongoing uncertainties in a number of major markets could provide an impetus to market volatility. Speculation over the outcome of the UK election and the potential timing of any US interest rate hike will remain key themes. However, Europe and in particular Greece is likely to be the focus of attention in the short term.

UK markets open this morning after the 4-day Easter long weekend, sterling looks to be starting he week on a high note, at least versus the US dollar as a slew of data from the US over the course of the long weekend looks to have cut the dollar’s rally short across the board. The Reserve Bank of Australia kicks off the day announcing that it has kept its cash rate target at 2.25 percent, in line with forecast. We are expecting key releases from the Eurozone as well as the UK in the form of Services PMI.

Good morning The US dollar slid for the first time this week as the first round of US Non-Farm payroll data released by payroll provider ADP disappointed, boosting the GBPUSD paring. Momentum has carried through overnight into early morning trading, key UK Construction PMI data is expected shortly with forecasts expected to show contraction in the sector compared with the previous month. Markets will be closed on Friday and Monday for the Easter long-weekend.

With yesterday’s mixed data from the UK sterling managed to regain some losses versus the Dollar and Euro. Today’s economic calendar is quite busy with data from the US and we are expecting a certain degree of volatility in the market as we get closer to the end of the short week. The market will continue to focus attention on the developments in the Eurozone as the Greek government is expected to reach an agreement with its Eurozone partners and the IMF on the latest tranche of aid.

The pound starts the week on the back foot, falling for a third week in a row versus the dollar on the back of record low inflation data last week. The economic calendar is relatively quiet for UK this week and the market will remain focused on key releases from the US.

Greece’s crisis negotiations continue to roll on as the country’s new government and European leaders remain divided. The uncertainty in the region will keep the pressure on the EUR/USD paring and developments in the region will continue to dominate the headlines. Following a quiet day for UK data yesterday the market will be focusing on UK retail sales due for release later this morning.

Sterling was boosted across the board yesterday as minutes from the Bank of England’s latest monetary policy meeting showed that all members voted to keep the benchmark interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent as expected. The UK economic calendar is quiet today and focus will be mainly on unemployment data from the US and headlines from Greece.

Good morning, The Euro is still the main focus as Greece continues to negotiate its terms within the Eurozone. Poor housing sales in the US caused the Dollar to soften against the Euro yesterday and the Pound wilted even though the CBI release was above expectation. Expect to see some strange moves today as we have key releases – Also, the end of month trader profit-taking which can cause a stir in the markets.

Good Morning Today’s preliminary estimate of Q4 UK GDP will provide the earliest official gauge of the economy's overall recent momentum. While the PMIs on their headline measures have softened markedly in Q4 relative to Q3, the PMI components are considered most informative, and other business surveys such as those from the BCC point to little change in the pace of activity. Hard data for the quarter so far have also been uneven, with notable weakness in measured construction output for October and November. But with the first estimate based on data that covers only about 40% of the economy's output in the quarter, the reported gain in GDP overall will hinge crucially on ONS assumptions for the pace of growth in December. The slew of data this afternoon will be assessed for confirmation that the US economy continued to grow strongly in Q4. The December durable goods release will provide one of the final key reports ahead of the Q4 GDP print on Friday. Following November’s 0.9% decline, orders are expected to have stabilised last month and are now forecast a 0.6% rise. The ongoing recovery in the US housing market is likely to have been re-established in December, with new home sales forecast to have risen by 3.5%. January consumer confidence is forecast to tick up from 92.6 to 95.7 a seven-year high.

A quiet day for the UK yesterday but The Pound still lost ground against the continuous charge of the US Dollar. ADP Non-Farm employment figures from the US were above analyst predictions and this moved the GBPUSD pairing down by over a cent. The Pound is unlikely to recover today with only the Official Bank rate being announced at midday. Analysts expect the rate to remain at 0.5%. The Euro had a mixed day with poor CPI Flash Estimate figures yesterday but unemployment remained at 11.5%. Unemployment data from the US will be the main focus today.

The US Dollar continues to make gains against its major counterparts as poor Services PMI numbers are released from the UK and the Eurozone. No key data from the UK today but we will be keeping a close eye on the Euro CPI Flash Estimate this morning and later this afternoon, the US releases ADP Non-Farm Employment figures. Keep in touch with all live updates by contacting the desk on 0844 815 3240 or ukdesk@transglobalpayments.com

The Bank of England further fuelled the interest rate hike debate yesterday as a new report from the central bank outlined that the majority of households would be able to cope with an interest rate hike up to 2% despite half a million households being put at risk of falling behind on their credit commitments. The report stressed unlike previous tightening cycles, the risk to more expensive credit could have a severe risk to the private sector rather than the consumer. Figures for November’s UK manufacturing output are expected for release this morning, following a buoyant PMI survey reading recorded last week that continued to show optimism in the sector. Markets will be looking to see whether the sector can remain in positive growth, following a strong year that has seen only a single month of contraction.

The US Dollar stole the headlines last week and made significant ground against its major counterparts. Climbing above a 7 year high against the Yen and with new lows for the Euro as Draghi’s speech last week gave no real optimism that the ECB were on track with the current QE program. Several key ECB members were critical saying they could not follow others (most notably Japan) as they were different regions with different economies. The UK delivered solid PMI numbers last week and held its own across the board but momentum seems to be with the US Dollar at the moment and that doesn’t look like changing as we approach the festive holidays here in the UK.

A quiet start to the week with a light economic calendar today and Veterans Day bank holiday in the US tomorrow. The dollar was the biggest gainer for a second week in a row last week against both sterling and euro however the dollar's rally seems to have been curbed coming into the new week after disappointing Non-Farm payroll data on Friday.

The US Dollar strengthened considerably against the Pound last night after Fed Chair Janet Yellen marked the end of the Federal Reserve's asset buying programme. The move was well received by the markets, who assumed from the accompanying remarks that an interest rate hike could be expected next year. Following last night’s statement, the Eurozone is expected to release a raft of important economic indicators such as Germany and Spain’s consumer inflation numbers. This afternoon, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak to the board of governors at the Federal Reserve, following this month’s US unemployment claims release that could have the potential to provide further market volatility.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to end its bond-buying program this evening, closing one controversial chapter in its crisis response even as it struggles to manage a full return to normal monetary policy. The Fed is likely to announce at the end of a two-day meeting that it will no longer add to its holdings of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, halting the final $15 billion in monthly purchases under a program that at its peak pumped $85 billion a month into the financial system. The statement the Fed will issue this evening will be read carefully for signs of how weak inflation, ebbing global growth and recent financial market volatility have influenced US policymakers.

A busy week ahead for the markets, where the US and Eurozone are expected to provide the most interest. UK retail sales disappointed last week as a rate hike now looks less and less likely from the Bank of England in the near term. The US FOMC announcement will no doubt be one of if not the main event of the week, when markets look out for a potential end to asset purchases, a signal from the Federal Reserve that the US recovery stabilising. In the Eurozone, the latest consumer inflation figure is certain to bring the problem of disinflation back to the forefront following a year long downtrend.

A quiet day for the UK in terms of data releases yesterday but Sterling still managed to make gains across the board, more notably against the US Dollar and the Euro. It appeared on paper that the US Dollar should have at least made some inroads against its major counterparts, as unemployment fell to a 14 year low but the reaction from the market yesterday was heavily influenced by news from the Eurozone. The uncertainty regarding the Greek bailout/lending programme as it comes to a close and the prospect of German Buba President Weidmann Due to deliver a speech this morning titled "The Changing International Monetary System: Outlook for 2014-15" will have had, and will continue to cause major volatility throughout the day. Quiet again for economic data today but the key speeches from Weidmann and US Fed Chair Yellen later today, could prove to be the calm before the storm as we go into next week.

Following a fall in UK consumer inflation recorded last week, Yesterday’s UK mortgage data provided further evidence that Bank of England Governor Mark Carney may choose to hold off raising interest rates in the near term as mortgage approvals fall to a 12-month low in August. Sterling closed the day relatively unchanged against its major counterparts with all eyes on the ECB during a light week for data, as figures released yesterday showed business activity in the Eurozone expanded at a weaker pace than expected in September. This morning’s German IFO business climate index will be watched closely as concerns over the Eurozone recovery show signs spreading to the region’s largest economy.

The US Dollar declined from a six-month high against its major peers as reports showed mixed progress in the US economic recovery. On a light day for trade data, focus will remain on the US economy’s mixed recovery and safe haven demand for currencies such as the Japanese Yen. Figures released this morning showed economic expectations in Germany suffer their biggest slump in over thirty years in the face of Russian sanctions and unrest in the Middle East.

Sterling was hit hard last week as disappointing UK inflation and overall upbeat US data pushed the pound to multi-month lows versus the dollar in a seventh straight week of decline. Diverging monetary policy will continue to spur volatility in the market and the focus this week will shift from the UK and US to the European Area following Mario Draghi’s speech in Jackson Hole, where he suggested that the ECB were prepared to ease policy further in the event that inflation continues to fall.

All eyes will be on this morning’s second estimate for UK GDP for the second quarter. The release is expected to confirm the preliminary estimate of 0.8% growth that would move the UK economy back to pre-recessionary levels. Concerns regarding the Eurozone recovery were reignited yesterday as figures showed that the Eurozone’s largest economy contracted through the three months to June, with Eurozone consumer inflation reaching 0.4%. Policy makers in Germany and the ECB remain confident that growth will pick up, remaining committed to act if outlook worsens.

The US Dollar moved higher in a week that saw mounting geopolitical fear and lots of talking points for future monetary policy. The US economy showed its strength with an excellent ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI release climbing to 58.7, the employment component up and weekly jobless claims below 300,000 once again. The Euro suffered last week from ECB President Draghi’s comments, weak German data and an Italian recession. In the UK, all eyes will be on wednesday's inflation report, as some observers believe that the MPC may be about to announce a change in its reaction policy, subtly moving to place more emphasis on nominal wages as a key determinant of interest rate increases.

Sterling made further gains across the board yesterday, boosted by this month’s construction PMI index that expanded despite expectations of a marginal contraction. This month’s ADP non-farm employment change figure took the headlines yesterday, surpassing the most optimistic of forecasts, pleasing investors who expect a surge in US activity during the second half of the year. Today sees a busy schedule for high impact data with the all-important US Jobs number being released at the same time as Draghi speaks to the media at this month’s ECB meeting.