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The Marketplace - 11th August 2016
11/08/2016
Another quiet day in terms economic reports will allow us to focus on tomorrows key US Retails Sales Data. Economists are forecasting a steady increase of 0.4% in sales with the holiday season now in full swing. Last month’s reading came out at 0.6%, 0.5% above the forecasted increase of .0.1%.
Today’s US unemployment number will come under scrutiny after a good Non-Farm Payroll figure on Friday. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased by 3,000 to 269,000 for the week ended July 30, but the growth trend in the labor market remains healthy. Economists expected claims to reach 265,000. The level of claims remained below the 300,000 threshold for 74 consecutive weeks.. remaining below the 300,000 threshold for the 34th consecutive week. Since the job market is near full employment, there is limited scope for further declines in claims. The four-week moving average of claims rose 3,750 to 260,250. The number of claims is expected to reach 272,000 this week.
The US Dollar weakens, with the US Fed policy in focus
The U.S. Dollar fell on Wednesday as economists await the Fed Chair Janet Yellens speech later this month, with no major economic reports in the build up to the speech many are finding it hard to see where we could see signs of strength. The greenback gained after Friday's jobs report for July showed better-than-expected employment gains, raising prospects for a further rate increase this year. The next major U.S. economic indicator will be Friday's retail sales report for July. Reduced liquidity in the holiday season could see an exaggeration in price moves.
The US Dollar lost 0.6% against the Japanese Yen and 0.5% again the Euro. was 0.64 percent weaker against the Japanese yen at 101.24 and 0.47 percent lower against the euro at $1.1170. The US Dollar moved to a three month high against the Australian Dollar before falling back down. The Australian Dollar has been buoyed this week with relatively high yields and a stronger investor appetite for risk. The Sterling steadied on Wednesday after falling to its lowest level against the US Dollar in almost a month.
Sterling struggles as gilt yields hit record lows
A fall in returns on UK government debt to the lowest on record knocked half a percent off sterling's value against the euro on Wednesday while a recovery against a broadly weaker U.S. Dollar. After a week in which sterling has suffered from the Bank of England's aggressive moves to ease monetary policy and a volley of promises from policymakers that more may follow, a survey for the bank added to evidence of a slowing economy.
Sterling has been under pressure since Britain's vote on June 23 to leave the European Union, but with data only just beginning to seep in, the jury is still out on the scale of the immediate blow to growth.
"The core story for the pound is the same: the authorities like the idea of a cheaper currency so we are probably headed lower," New York Mellon's head of global market research, Simon Derrick, said.
Data released on Tuesday showed industrial output grew at the fastest rate since 1999 in the second quarter of this year. But the trade deficit surged in June, a sign of how exposed Britain is to any slackening off of inward investment.
Source: Reuters
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