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The Marketplace - 26th April 2016
26/04/2016
Today’s BBA March housing transactions figures will provide a preview of Friday’s more comprehensive Bank of England data. They are likely to show a spike in the market. At least some of this, however, will be due to transactions being brought forward ahead of the rise in stamp duty on second homes implemented in April. As a result it will be difficult to work out the underlying strength of the UK housing market over the next few months.
In the US, durable goods orders for March will provide an update on manufacturing. Headline growth will probably rebound sharply following February’s 3% decline. However, much of that will be due to volatile aircraft orders. Of more interest are ‘core’ orders (excluding transport), which declined in three out of four of the previous months. A rebound would be an indication that the recent malaise in manufacturing may be drawing to a close. Also of interest will be accompanying March capital goods shipments, which are used in the calculation of GDP and so will help to refine forecasts of the initial Q1 growth estimate due Thursday.
Greece Makes Positive Steps
Eurozone ministers have said they made progress in talks about Greece’s the bailout programme. But they said after a meeting in Amsterdam on Friday that further work was still needed. They said they are hopeful that an agreement can reached in the next few days and are ready to call an extraordinary meeting. That would pave the way for the next payment under the bailout. It's a familiar pattern. Once again a review of the Greek government's policies has been delayed by months. So has the next payment of financial assistance. This review, the first under a new bailout of more than €80bn and agreed in August 2015, was originally supposed to be completed last year.
Sterling Nudges Two Month High
The pound rose to its strongest level in more than two months versus the dollar amid signs the “remain” camp is pulling ahead in the campaign over Britain’s membership of the European Union. Sterling touched a six-week high against the euro, after posting its longest winning streak in 10 months through Friday, as U.S. President Barack Obama backed the U.K. government’s position that Britain’s economy and trading relationships would be at risk should it quit the world’s largest single market.
Since the official campaign started just over a week ago, pro-Europeans have taken the lead, with the ‘Bloomberg Brexit Tracker’ putting the probability of an EU exit at about 20 percent. Sterling climbed as much as 0.8% the highest since Feb. 15, and was up 0.6 % as of 5:07 p.m. London time. It jumped 1.4 %last week in the best performance in almost two months.
Markets Move Ahead Of Central Bank Announcements
The Federal Reserve will conclude its meeting on Wednesday and while no change in interest rates is expected, Bank of America Corp. sees scope for its comments to modestly boost the market’s assessment of prospects for a hike.
The Bank of Japan’s outcome will be announced a day later and most analysts predict Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will announce a monetary stimulus boost amid Japan’s near-zero inflation. Nikkei newspaper reported that Japan’s $1.3 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund will start hedging to protect its foreign assets against an appreciating yen, a move Bank of America Merrill Lynch strategist Shusuke Yamada said could boost the local currency
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