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The Marketplace - 19th May 2016
19/05/2016
FOMC Minutes were unambiguously hawkish signaling that June is ‘seriously live’. Follow through on USD appreciation has been measured, but with the divergence trade likely to build on a further re-pricing of FOMC risks, tonight’s speech by Vice-Chairman Fischer and Dudley could drive another leg higher.
Retail sales is the main UK data print today which after a weak March is forecasted for a small recovery. Broadly GBP isn’t trading off macro releases data continues to be overshadowed by polls showing the remain camp gaining by a widening margin (ISPOS 55% Remain, 37% Leave), betting odds have Remain close to the highs providing increasing support to the Pound.
UK labour Data - Cooling
UK labour market data came in mixed for Q1 2016:
- Employment change beat estimate at +44k versus 0k consensus. The unemployment rate remains at 5.1% as expected.
- The average weekly earnings bounced back to 2.0% (1.7% consensus, upwardly revised 1.9% previously). However, earning excluding bonus edged down to 2.1% versus 2.3% forecasted.
- Jobless claims contracted by -2.4k, better than the +5k forecasted. However, March claims saw a large revision from +6.7k to +14.7k. Claimant count rate came in at 2.1% as expected.
Overall yesterday's labour data mark an improvement from February but jobs and wage growth are still at a more subdued pace compared with 2015.
YouGov poll: Remain lead widens slightly - EU UK referendum
Latest poll for the UK EU referendum shows Remain has a 4 point lead over Leave. Remains’ lead has widened from the 2 point lead it had in the prior poll surveyed 10 days ago. The YouGov/Times poll conducted online saw Bremain at 44% (previous poll at 42%) and Brexit at 40% (unchanged from last time).
However it is worth noting that according to Sam Coates, the Times journalist who reported the poll, said there was a tweak to the methodology applied by YouGov. Without that, Remain would have a 3% lead instead of 4%.
This result would support the ORB poll released on Monday that showed the Remain side gaining ahead of Leave. That said, we would note that poll results tend to be very volatile.
Sterling received a huge boost from this which has taking many by surprise!
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