Market Watch
The Marketplace - 5th May 2017
05/05/2017
The US labour market report for April will be today’s key focus for markets. Wednesday’s post-FOMC meeting press statement seemingly indicated that the Fed is still on course to raise its policy interest rates at its next meeting on 14th June. In its statement, the Fed acknowledged that “growth in economic activity has slowed” but significantly also said that this was “likely to be transitory”.
Nevertheless, before raising rates for the second time this year it will probably want to see evidence that economic growth has picked up again in Q2. That attaches a lot of importance to upcoming economic data over the next six weeks starting with today’s report.
The March US labour report was mixed. Payrolls grew by only 98k the weakest growth for ten months, but the unemployment rate fell to 4.5% a new cyclical low and at or close to many estimates of full employment. April is forecast to see a partial reversal of both these trends. Most indicators suggest that the labour market remains buoyant and so analysts expect payrolls to rebound and show a 200k rise. The unemployment rate, however, is expected to rise modestly to 4.6%. Earnings will be watched for signs of acceleration, but markets expect annual wage growth to be unchanged at 2.7%.
A number of Fed policy makers are scheduled to speak today, including both Fed Chair Yellen and Vice-chairman Fischer. Of particular interest will be anything they have to say about what the Fed will be looking to justify a June policy move. Canada also releases labour market statistics today but otherwise there are no data releases of note elsewhere.
The Marketplace - 20th December 2016
20/12/2016
Good Morning,
Even though the overall feeling is that of a market wrapping up for the year, some concerning news’ have cast a long shadow on the festive mood of the season. The two headlines which caught attention in the Asian session today:
Russia’s ambassador to Turkey was shot dead on Monday by an assassin who told him: “We die in Aleppo, you die here.” The attack has been swiftly condemned by other countries.
Elsewhere a truck rammed into crowds at a Berlin Christmas market on Monday evening, killing 12 people and injuring up to 48 people, police said. Berlin State Interior Minister Andreas Geisel said it was still unclear if it had been an attack or an accident. German President Joachim Gauck said in a statement that it was an "awful evening for Berlin and for our country".
Reuters reports that France has increased security at Christmas markets after Berlin truck incident.
As always stay in touch with the desk for all of the latest updates on 0844 815 3240 or email us at ukdesk@transglobalpayments.
The Marketplace - 15th November
15/11/2016
It’s a busy day for economics events with important data releases in both the UK and the US, along with testimony to a House of Commons Committee by BOE Governor Carney and colleagues.
UK CPI inflation rose to 1.0% in September, its highest level since November 2014, while ‘core’ inflation also picked up. Analysts expect another rise in ‘headline’ inflation In October to 1.1%.
When the BOE cut its policy rate in August, Governor Carney suggested that a further reduction was likely in November. However, not only did the MPC fail to cut rates at its November meeting, it also moved to a more neutral guidance on future policy. At today’s HoC Committee hearing, Carney and his colleagues may be asked about the extent of upside risks for inflation and what would needed to cause the MPC to tighten monetary policy.
In the US, October retail sales are expected to post a sizeable rise of 0.6% led by buoyant car sales. There are also a number of Fed speakers including Fed Vice Chairman Fischer. Of particular interest will be anything he has to say about the sharp rise in Treasury yields over the past week.